The Canadian picture
Of 342 occupations, 335 carry an official Statistics Canada NOC 2021 code, mapped through the published SOC 2018 → NOC 2016 → NOC 2021 correspondence tables, and 327 carry an ESDC COPS 2024–2033 labour-market assessment. Setting that outlook beside measured AI exposure is the useful part: one says whether Canada will be short of people in a role, the other says how far AI already reaches into the work.
They do not always point the same way. 100 occupations face a projected shortage and 10 a projected surplus — but 15 are simultaneously short of people and in the highest AI-exposure band, which is a different problem from either one alone.
The COPS 2024–2033 outlook, across the dataset
ESDC's projected assessment per NOC 2021 unit group, verbatim. National, not by province — the source does not publish a provincial breakdown, so neither do we.
A projected shortage is a labour-market signal, not a safety rating: it says employers are expected to struggle to fill the role, which is independent of how much of the work AI can do.
Short of people, and heavily exposed
These 15 occupations sit in the highest AI-exposure band while ESDC projects Canada will be short of people to do them. Both facts are measured, and they pull in opposite directions: demand for the role is expected to outstrip supply even as AI takes on more of its tasks.
We looked at this overlap in more depth: Canada is short of the workers AI reaches furthest into.
- Insurance sales agentsNOC 63100Moderate risk of Shortage83th
- PharmacistsNOC 31120Strong risk of Shortage80th
- Mechanical engineersNOC 21301Moderate risk of Shortage78th
- Dietitians and nutritionistsNOC 31121Strong risk of Shortage76th
- Middle school teachersNOC 41221Moderate risk of Shortage76th
- High school teachersNOC 41220Moderate risk of Shortage75th
- Mechanical engineering technologists and techniciansNOC 22301Moderate risk of Shortage73th
- Genetic counselorsNOC 31303Strong risk of Shortage72th
- Industrial engineersNOC 21321Moderate risk of Shortage71th
- PsychologistsNOC 31200Strong risk of Shortage71th
- Civil engineering technologists and techniciansNOC 22300Moderate risk of Shortage70th
- Kindergarten and elementary school teachersNOC 41221Moderate risk of Shortage70th
- Electrical and electronics engineersNOC 21310Moderate risk of Shortage68th
- Environmental engineering technologists and techniciansNOC 22300Moderate risk of Shortage68th
- Pharmacy techniciansNOC 32124Moderate risk of Shortage67th
By TEER level
TEER replaced the old NOC skill-level system in 2021. It describes the training, education, experience and responsibilities a role typically requires — not its status or pay. It is read from the second digit of the NOC code, so it cannot disagree with the code.
| TEER | Typically requires | Occupations |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Management | 32 |
| 1 | University degree | 113 |
| 2 | College or apprenticeship, 2+ years | 106 |
| 3 | College or apprenticeship, under 2 years | 46 |
| 4 | Secondary school | 27 |
| 5 | Short-term demonstration | 11 |
How reliable the Canadian mapping is
The dataset's occupations are US SOC codes, so every Canadian figure depends on a concordance. Of the 335 mapped occupations, 177 resolved to exactly one NOC 2021 unit group through the official tables. The other 158had several candidates, and we chose the closest by title overlap — those are marked on the occupation's own page as a closest match rather than a clean one.
7 occupations have no official concordance path at all. Their pages say so rather than showing a code we picked. Full method
Keep reading
These are professions. Yours is a set of skills.
An occupation average tells you where the ground is moving, not where you stand on it. Map the skills you actually own against it, and see which pathways stay open.